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    THE ROLE OF MIGRATION IN THE RENEWING THE SKILLS
    Lam3rokДата: Воскресенье, 03.11.2013, 19:29 | Сообщение # 1
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    THE ROLE OF MIGRATION

    IN THE RENEWING THE SKILLS OF AGEING WORKFORCES

    ON THE EUROPEAN LABOR MARKET

    Kondratenia V.O., student of master degre Scientific adviser: Diatlova V.V., Doctor of Economics, professor

    Donetsk State University of Management

    Donetsk, Ukraine

    Formulation of the problem in general. Discussions concerning the ageing workforce are often phrased in terms of a replacement problem, with smaller youth cohorts entering the workforce as large baby-boom cohorts retire. The implication is that international migration will be needed to offset this imbalance, in support of economic growth, both to maintain the size of the labor force and to ensure an adequate supply of skills to respond to the continuing expected growth in high-skilled jobs.

    Purpose of the research is to get a clearer picture of the demographic imbalance question that is central to discussions of ageing, to see how it is playing out in practice and where immigrants fit into the picture.

    Materials exposition of general research. As is well known, the next decade will see significant demographic change in the working-age population and labor force in OECD countries. The 8.6% increase in the working-age population (20-64-year-olds) observed on average over the period 2000-2012 is expected to drop to barely 2% over the 2010-2020 decade, even assuming a continuation of pre-crisis migration levels. Almost half of OECD countries will see declines in their working-age populations over the coming decade [1, p. 1049].

    Nowadays the current issues on the European labor market could be construed as follows:

    1) educational attainment of new entrants into the labor force was much higher than that of retiring workers over the period 2000-10. New immigrants had educational levels that were between those of new entrants and retirees, with proportionally more highly educated workers among new immigrants than retirees, but more low-educated workers than among new entrants;

    2) not only were new entrants to the labor force more educated over the period 2000-10, there were more of them. There were close to three highly educated new entrants for every retiring one in both Europe and the United States, and the reverse situation held for the low-educated;

    3) immigrants represented 47/70% of the increase in the labor force in the United Statesand Europe, respectively, over the decade, but 21/14% respectively of the increase in the highly educated labor force. They are thus playing a more significant role inmaintaining the size of the labor force than in its up-skilling in most countries;

    4) composition of occupational change over the decade mirrored that observed for the educational attainment of the labor force. Young new entrants into strongly growing occupations (most of which were highly skilled) far outnumbered retirees over the past decade. Likewise, retirees from strongly declining occupations greatly outnumbered new entrants. Indeed, over 40% of net occupational change took place through the entry and exit of young and older workers;

    5) new immigrants represented 15% of entries into strongly growing occupations in Europe over the decade. They are thus playing a significant role in the most dynamic sectors of the economy, even under conditions when most migration has not been demand-driven;

    6) at the same time immigrants represented 24% and 28%, respectively, of entries into the most strongly declining occupations in Europe and the United States:

    7) almost half of low-skilled jobs on average are taken up by immigrants, with considerable variation across countries. In some countries, the immigrant share is very high, which risks creating a segmented labor market, as low-skilled jobs become the exclusive domain of immigrants;

    8) in countries where labor migration has been more significant, the contribution of migrants to the up-skilling of the workforce and to growing occupations has been more significant;

    9) demographic imbalance model of labor force change and occupational change seems inappropriate in the face of the large differences in educational attainment between entry and exit cohorts and in entry and exit from growing and declining occupations.

    The potential need for immigrants in the ageing context thus cannot be assessed on the basis of demographic imbalances alone, but must take into account changes in the nature of employment, which appear to be more dynamic than changes in the age composition of the population and labor force.

    The labor force has increased by about 0.9 percentage points per year on average between 2000 and 2012, an amount that is expected to decline to less than 0.2 percentage points per year over the coming decade. The demographic composition of this change is portrayed in Table 1. The labor force renewed itself by about a quarter over the period, from inflows (new entrants and immigrants) replacing outflows (retirees). Immigrants on average accounted for about 19% of the inflows, with contributions far above average in Ireland (34%), Luxembourg (57%), Spain (40%) and Switzerland (40%) [2].

    On average overall, the differences between new entrants and retiring older workers was very large, with the percentage of young new entrants having low attainment levels being 31 percentage points lower than retiring older workers and the percentage of new entrants having high

    attainment levels being 22 percentage points higher. The improvement in attainment levels in the labor force across generations in the countries of southern Europe and Ireland was especially large, with declines in the labor force with low attainment of about 50 points. Canada is the only country which did not see double-digit reductions across generations in the percentage of the labor force with low attainment levels, but the percentage of such workers among retirees was already relatively low in that country.

    Table 1

    Educational attainment of the labor force, new entrants, new immigrantsand retirees, 2000-2012

    Country Low attainment Medium attainment High attainment Immigrants compared to new entrants Older workers (retirees) Young workers (news entrants) New immi-grants Older workers (retirees) Young workers (new entrants) New immi-grants Older workers (retirees) Young workers (news entrants) New immi-grants Low atttain-ment Medium attain-ment High attain-ment Per cent of all retirees Percentage points +/- retirees Per cent of all retirees Percentage points +/- retirees Per cent of all retirees Percentage points +/- retirees Percentage points +/- new entrants

    Denmark - - - - - - 27 +20 +8 - - -12

    Canada 16 -10 -8 35 -10 -10 49 +19 +18 +2 - -1

    Czech

    Republic 18 -14 -7 73 -4 -8 10 +18 +15 +7 -4 -3

    United States 19 -15 +11 52 -2 -14 29 +18 +3 +26 -12 -14

    Norway - - - - - - 26 +21 +10 - - -11

    Germany 26 -16 +2 52 +14 -17 22 +2 +15 +18 -31 +14

    Switzerland 26 -19 -7 62 -7 -29 13 +26 +36 +12 -22 +10

    Austria 28 -20 -4 60 +11 -10 11 +9 +14 +16 -21 +5

    Sweden 29 -18 +3 42 +10 -19 29 +9 +17 +21 -29 +8

    Hungary 29 -20 -17 55 +1 -8 16 +19 +25 +2 -9 +6

    United

    Kingdom 30 -28 -14 53 -2 +4 17 +30 +9 +14 +6 -20

    Netherlands 33 -19 -2 47 -5 -15 20 +24 +17 +18 -10 -7

    Finland 42 -36 -7 32 +20 +13 27 +17 -6 +29 -7 -23

    France 44 -32 -8 39 +3 -9 17 +29 +17 +24 -12 -12

    Luxembourg 45 -32 -31 40 +9 -17 15 +23 +48 +1 -26 +25

    Belgium 49 -37 -19 28 +11 +4 23 +25 +15 +18 -7 -11

    Ireland 58 -56 -47 27 +8 +12 14 +48 +35 +9 +4 -13

    Italy 65 -52 -23 25 +34 +22 10 +18 +1 +29 -12 -17

    Greece 66 -52 -10 23 +19 +11 11 +33 - +42 -9 -33

    Spain 80 -51 -38 6 +16 +30 14 +35 +8 +13 +13 -27

    Portugal 89 -54 -43 5 +27 +35 6 +27 +7 +11 +9 -20

    OECD

    average 42 -31 -14 40 +8 -1 19 +22 +15 +16 -9 -7

    At the other end of the attainment spectrum, almost all countries have seen double-digit increases in the per cent of young workers with tertiary attainment levels compared to retirees, with generally at least 20 percentage point increases. Thus in general, the difference in attainment levels between incoming and outgoing labor force cohorts is quite large.

    Conclusions.These results by themselves would point to a labor market role for new immigrants that may not resemble that for young new entrants, with their generally much higher attainment levels. The results above, however, concern the distribution of attainment levels in the labor force among demographic groups. They tell us little about volumes, that is about the relative numbers of entrants, new immigrants and retirees, and possible demographic imbalances resulting from large retiring cohorts compared with declining youth cohorts, so that, the problem of workforces renewing on the European market is still open for further researches.

    Literature

    1. Acemoglu D. Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings / D. Acemoglu // O. Ashenfelter and D. Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 4, Part B. – Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2010. – P. 1043-1171.

    2. International migration outlook 2012. OECD report [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/migr_outlook-2012-en.

    3. Katz L.F. Changes in the Wage Structure and Earnings Inequality / L.F. Katz // O. Ashenfelter and D. Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3A. – Amsterdam: Elsevier, 201. – Р. 1463-1555.
     
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